The Matchday 4 encounter in the Copa Libertadores 2025 group stage between Alianza Lima (Peru) and Sao Paulo (Brazil) in Group D will take place on May 7 at the Alejandro Villanueva Stadium. Alianza Lima vs. Sao Paulo: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
Andres Matonte (Uruguay)
Matches – 19 (International matches, 2024-2025);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 92;
Average yellow cards per match – 4.8;
Red cards shown – 3;
Average fouls per match – 22;
Penalties – 16%.
Group D leaders São Paulo travel to the Peruvian capital in search of a third consecutive away win, while Alianza Lima are in urgent need of points to remain in contention for a place in the knockout round.
The hosts have started to collect points following their opening defeat to Libertad (0:1). They managed a 2:2 draw against São Paulo at Morumbi, although scoring multiple goals remains a rare feat for them. Even their victories tend to be narrow – all ending 1:0. That scoreline has now occurred three times in recent rounds of the Peruvian league. Most recently, the team even suffered a home defeat to mid-table side Cienciano last Saturday.
São Paulo have also been unconvincing, but the crucial distinction is that they are avoiding defeats. In Serie A, they have produced five draws and one win across six rounds. In the Copa Libertadores, São Paulo top the group thanks to two wins and a draw. Much like their opponents, São Paulo are involved in low-scoring encounters – four of their last five matches have finished below the Total Over line.
Having already secured away wins against Talleres (1:0) and Libertad (2:0), São Paulo appear well-placed to claim another result on the road. However, there is a case to be made for the hosts to salvage a draw. A combination bet is worth considering here, as we find it hard to expect more than two goals in this match.
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